Josh Jacobs Fantasy football ranking: 2020 outlook, projections, ADP, value, predictions, stats

Josh Jacobs' impressive rookie campaign may have flown under the radar because it came as a member of an irrelevant Raiders squad, but it was one of the strongest rookie running back seasons we have seen in some time. And while Jacobs' pedigree and the Raiders' strong offensive line suggest that another strong season as a rusher is on tap, the team's offseason moves point towards Jacobs again being limited as a pass-catcher.

Entering the 2019 NFL Draft, Jacobs was touted as being capable of contributing as a pass-catching option out of the backfield. Just 27 targets as a rookie prevented Jacobs from showcasing that ability, which could again be the case in 2020. The Raiders gave third-down specialist Jalen Richard a two-year extension this offseason, while also using multiple draft picks on complementary pass-catchers. Las Vegas made Henry Ruggs the first wide receiver selected with the 12th overall pick, and they followed that up by using their third selection on RB/WR hybrid Lynn Bowden out of Kentucky. Does Jacobs have the upside as a rusher to be worth early-round consideration in Fantasy drafts, or will his lack of involvement in the passing game limit his ceiling?

The 2020 Josh Jacobs Fantasy football value remains strong, as he's set for another 1,000-yard campaign. He's a first-round candidate in most formats, but how high should he be in your 2020 Fantasy football rankings? Here's what you need to know:

So which players are poised for breakouts, which sleepers do you need to jump on, and which busts should you avoid at all costs in your Fantasy football league? Join SportsLine now to get early 2020 Fantasy football rankings, plus see which WR is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.

Josh Jacobs Fantasy ADP & ranking (via SportsLine's projection model)

No. 8.3 ADP
No. 7 RB (non-PPR)
No. 7 RB (PPR)

Josh Jacobs Fantasy projections (via SportsLine's projection model) 

267 rushing attempts, 1,184 rushing yards, 8.9 rushing touchdowns, 33.6 targets, 25.7 receptions, 197 receiving yards, 0.26 receiving TDS
188.9 Fantasy points (non-PPR); 214.6 (PPR)

Josh Jacobs 2020 Fantasy outlook 

As a rookie, Jacobs finished first in the NFL in PFF's elusiveness rating. He had the second-highest PFF rushing grade behind only Nick Chubb, and he was the RB8 in Fantasy from Weeks 1-11. His Fantasy season was ultimately derailed by a shoulder injury that he played through from Week 7 on, but the efficiency numbers were strong enough to provide Fantasy owners a glimpse at the type of talent Jacobs is.

Among backs with 200-plus carries, only four broke tackles at a higher rate than Jacobs in 2019. He ranked third among that group in yards after contact per carry. There were few backs who were more difficult to bring down than Jacobs in 2019.

Not only was the efficiency there for Jacobs, he also ranked ninth among running backs in touches per game and sixth in red zone carries per game. When that type of efficiency is combined with a massive workload, the potential is there for a 1,500 rushing yard season if Jacobs can stay healthy for 16 games.

With limited access to targets, Jacobs' Fantasy ceiling is predicated on the Raiders' ability to keep games competitive. In 2019, the Raiders were among the most run-heavy teams when playing with a tie or lead. Their 50 percent run rate in that split ranked 10th in the NFL, and Jacobs was on the field far more in those circumstances. 71 percent of Jacobs' rushing attempts and 66 percent of his rushing yardage came while playing with a tie or lead, despite Las Vegas only playing with a tie or lead 58.9 percent of the time when on offense.

The Raiders were 6-7 in games Jacobs played as a rookie. He averaged 20.7 Fantasy points in wins but just 9.8 in losses. Jacobs' 62.6 percent snap rate in games the Raiders won dropped to just 50.5 percent in losses. If Las Vegas is able to exceed its 7.5-game win total for 2020, Jacobs could very well blow his rookie rushing numbers out of the water. However, if the Raiders are again just a middle-of-the-pack team, Jacobs might not even be on the field enough to make Fantasy owners glad they invested an early-round pick into him. I am not expecting the Raiders to exceed their win total, which helps explain why he's ranked as just my RB13 in PPR formats. I'd gladly take Joe Mixon, Kenyan Drake, Miles Sanders, Austin Ekeler, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire over Jacobs in any PPR format, although I could understand selecting him as a top-eight RB for standard leagues.